كان عام 2023 هو الأكثر سخونة على الإطلاق، مع استمرار الجفاف وموجات الحر القاتلة وحرائق الغابات العاصفة والفيضانات المدمرة، وتأثيرات كارثية على صحة وحياة وسبل عيش الناس في جميع أنحاء العالم.
تستمر الوفيات المرتبطة بالحرارة في الزيادة بسرعة، ومن المتوقع أن تتجاوز الوفيات المرتبطة بالبرد في سيناريو الاحترار المرتفع. على مستوى العالم في عام 2023، زادت الوفيات المرتبطة بالحرارة لدى الأشخاص الذين تزيد أعمارهم عن 65 عامًا بنسبة قياسية بلغت 167٪ فوق الوفيات في التسعينيات، وهي أعلى بكثير من الزيادة البالغة 65٪ التي كان من المتوقع حدوثها لو لم تتغير درجات الحرارة (أي، مع الأخذ في الاعتبار فقط التغيرات الديموغرافية). وهذا يفاقم عدم المساواة القائمة، حيث أن عدد أيام الحرارة التي تهدد الصحة والتي أضافها تغير المناخ أعلى في البلدان ذات مؤشر التنمية البشرية المنخفض (مقياس للتعليم والدخل ومتوسط العمر المتوقع).
Worldwide in 2023, people were also exposed to, on average, an all-time high of 1,512 hours of high temperatures posing at least a moderate risk of heat stress while undertaking light outdoor exercise such as walking or cycling—a 27.7% increase (328 hours) on the 1990-1999 yearly average. Increasing temperatures have also led to a record 512 billion potential hours of labour lost globally in 2023 (a 49% increase above the 1990-1999 average), with global potential income losses equivalent to US$835 billion—equivalent to a substantial proportion of GDP in low- (7.6%) and middle-income countries (4.4%).
During the last decade (2014-2023), 61% of the global land area saw an increase in extreme precipitation events compared to the 1961-1990 average, increasing the risk of flooding, infectious disease, and water contamination. In parallel, more frequent heatwaves and droughts were responsible for 151 million more people experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity in 124 countries in 2022, than annually between 1981 and 2010. As a result, the report estimates the total yearly value of economic losses (linked to physical assets rather than ill-health) resulting from extreme weather events at US$227 billion from 2019-2023, a value that exceeds the GDP of 60% of the world’s economies.
The climatic suitability for the spread of deadly mosquito-borne infectious diseases has also increased. For example, the transmission risk of dengue by Aedes albopictus mosquitoes rose by 46% and Aedes aegypti by 11% over the last decade (2014-2023) compared to 1951-1960. An all-time high of over 5 million dengue cases were reported in over 80 countries/territories in 2023 [1].
“People in all parts of the world are increasingly suffering from the financial and health effects of climate change, and disadvantaged communities in resource-limited nations are often the worst affected, yet provided with the least financial and technological protections,” said Prof. Wenjia Cai, Lancet Countdown Working Group 4 Co-Chair at Tsinghua University. “Adaptation is failing to keep pace with the rapidly growing health threats of climate change, and with limits to adaptation looming, and universal health coverage still a pipe dream for more than half the world’s population, financial support is urgently needed to strengthen health systems to better protect people.”
Governments and companies continue fuelling the fire, threatening to reverse limited progress
New and updated indicators reveal that governments and companies continue fuelling the fire with persistent investments in fossil fuels, all-time high GHG emissions, and staggering tree loss, reducing the survival chances of people all around the globe. In 2023, global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions reached an all-time high, 1.1% above 2022, and the proportion of fossil fuels in the global energy system increased for the first time in a decade during 2021, reaching 80.3% of all energy (up from 80.1% in 2020).
While climate action is limited by the lack of funding, fossil fuel investment still attracted 36.6% of global energy investment in 2023, with many governments also increasing explicit fossil fuel subsidies in response to soaring energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In 2022, 72 of the 86 countries (84%) analysed in the report subsidised fossil fuels for a record net total of US$1.4 trillion (taking into account the contribution of both carbon pricing and fossil fuel subsidies), dwarfing any financial commitments in support of climate action made at COP28. These subsidies exceeded 10% of national health spending in 47 of the countries, and 100% in 23 countries.
Against this concerning backdrop, the Loss and Damage Fund established at COP27 in 2022 to support countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, received initial pledges totalling the much smaller sum of US$700 million, which amounted to less than 0.2% of the estimated requirement every year [2]. Similarly, the decade-long delay in delivering the comparatively modest sum of US$100 billion a year promised to support vulnerable countries cope with climate change has hampered progress and widened global inequities.
Bolstered by record profits, the world’s 114 largest oil and gas companies (covering 80% of all production projected by 2040) have increased their projected fossil fuel production levels since last year, which would lead to their GHG emissions exceeding levels compatible with 1.5°C of warming by 59% in 2030, and a staggering 189% in 2040, further reducing their compliance with the Paris Agreement. Worse still, 33 of these companies are expected to exceed their 1.5°C-compatible GHG emissions by over 300% in 2040.
Added to this, new data from this year’s report estimates that almost 182 million hectares of forest were destroyed between 2016 (when the Paris Agreement entered into force) and 2022, equivalent to 5% of the global tree cover, diminishing the world’s natural capacity to capture carbon dioxide. The greatest tree cover losses were in Russia (35.8 million hectares), the USA and Canada (almost 15 million hectares in each country). At the same time, the rise in red meat and dairy intake increased diet-related deaths by 220,000 between 2016 and 2021, and contributed to a 2.9% rise in agricultural GHG emissions.
Prof. Stella Hartinger, co-author and Lancet Countdown Latin America Director at Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, said: “Oil and gas companies – supported by many governments and the global financial system – continue to reinforce the world’s addiction to fossil fuels. In a world in which survival depends on phasing out fossil fuels, these short-sighted investments set us up for financial turmoil as we pursue a liveable future. These perverse investments, coupled with the serious failure to make the necessary structural changes in the energy sector to support the net-zero transition, are jeopardising the economies on which people’s livelihoods depend, and leaving the health and survival of millions of people at risk.”
Redirecting funding to actions that benefit—rather than harm—people’s health
Despite the record-breaking health harms laid out in the report, there are some reasons for cautious optimism. Deaths from fossil fuel-derived air pollution fell almost 7% from 2.25 million in 2016 to 2.09 million in 2021, with 59% of this decline due to efforts to reduce pollution from coal burning, demonstrating the life-saving potential of coal phase-out.
At the same time, the share of electricity generated by clean modern renewables reached 10.5% in 2021, almost double that of 2016 (5.5%), while global investment in clean energy grew 10% in 2023 to US$1.9 trillion, exceeding fossil fuel investment by 73%. Meanwhile, employment in renewables reached a record-high with 13.7 million employees in 2022 (35.6% increase since 2016), reaffirming that renewable energy can support job security now and in the future.
قال المؤلف المشارك البروفيسور أنتوني كوستيلو، الرئيس المشارك لـ Lancet Countdown: "التقدم نحو مستقبل عادل وصحي يتطلب تحولًا عالميًا في الأنظمة المالية، وتحويل الموارد بعيدًا عن الاقتصاد القائم على الوقود الأحفوري نحو مستقبل خالٍ من الانبعاثات". "لإصلاح ناجح، يجب وضع صحة الناس في مقدمة وأساس سياسة تغير المناخ لضمان أن آليات التمويل تحمي الرفاهية، وتقلل من عدم المساواة الصحية، وتعظم المكاسب الصحية، خاصة بالنسبة للبلدان والمجتمعات التي تحتاج إليها أكثر من غيرها."
يعمل Lancet Countdown مع شركاء استراتيجيين رئيسيين:
- يقود Lancet Countdown معهد كلية لندن الجامعية للصحة العالمية.
- تأسس Lancet Countdown بواسطة Wellcome ويستمر في تلقي الدعم الاستراتيجي والمالي الأساسي.
- يعمل Lancet Countdown بالشراكة الاستراتيجية مع منظمة الصحة العالمية.
- يمثل التقرير العالمي لـ Lancet Countdown عمل 122 خبيرًا رائدًا من 57 مؤسسة أكاديمية ووكالة تابعة للأمم المتحدة على مستوى العالم. يمكن العثور على قائمة كاملة بالمؤلفين في التقرير.
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