A new study in the journal One Earth shows that anthropogenic climate change accounts for a significant portion of the increased dengue risk due to hydrometeorological conditions in Brazil and China. Researchers Wenhao Yu and Qi Zhao analyzed data from 1981 to 2020 and found that 73.6% of the excess dengue risk associated with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in Brazil and 26.5% in China are attributable to human influences. The risk increased twice as fast in Brazil as in China, with urbanization mitigating the effects.
Dengue, a viral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, has spread globally due to climate changes such as higher temperatures, altered precipitation, and humidity. The study compared factual scenarios with counterfactual ones (without anthropogenic influence) and emphasizes that extreme drought and humidity create breeding grounds for mosquitoes. In Brazil (558 microregions) and China (370 cities), the number of high-risk months increased due to climate change, with greater urbanization acting as a protective factor.
The authors call for integrated climate protection measures in urban planning to prevent dengue epidemics, highlighting the need to prioritize vulnerable areas. These findings could shape health and urban policy in tropical regions, where dengue affects millions annually.
Link to article: Anthropogenic climate change contributes to elevated dengue risk associated with hydrometeorological conditions in Brazil and China
