Donald Trump's actions during his presidency, especially since taking office in January 2025, are often described as erratic, impulsive, or unconventional. However, what appears as chaos at first glance follows a clear logic that can be explained through psychological, communicative, and political mechanisms. Peer-reviewed studies and current analyses show that Trump's behavior is not random but deliberately uses psychological principles to generate attention, solidify loyalty, and maximize political power. This article illuminates the success model behind Trump's seemingly erratic actions from a psychological-scientific perspective, supported by verified research and concrete examples.
Psychological Foundations: The Power of Dominance and Extraversion
A central aspect of Trump's success lies in his personality structure, characterized by high extraversion and social dominance. Dan P. McAdams, a renowned psychologist, describes Trump in an analysis in The Atlantic (2016) as a person with a pronounced narcissistic profile, distinguished by low agreeableness and a strong orientation towards self-staging. These traits manifest in his public appearances, for example, through provocative statements or polarizing social media posts that trigger constant media excitement. McAdams argues that Trump does not act primarily for the sake of political progress but to demonstrate his personal dominance. A study by Puppatz (2018) confirms that Trump's high extraversion and low conscientiousness make him predictable in his tendency to seek conflict and resolve it through confrontation.
A concrete example from 2025 is Trump's reaction to the international protests against his announcement to definitively withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords. In March 2025, Trump published a tweet in which he called the climate movement a "globalist scam" and claimed that the U.S. did not need "foreign rules" to protect its environment. This statement, although factually inaccurate, triggered massive media reactions and dominated news cycles worldwide. According to an analysis in ZDFheute (2025), this was not a spontaneous outburst but a calculated move to mobilize his base and shift the debate away from substantive criticisms towards his person. This strategy of attention diversion is a core component of his success model.
Populist Communication: Emotions Over Facts
Trump's communication strategy is another pillar of his success. A study in the anthology The Great Disruptor (2020) on SpringerLink describes his "politics of denigration" as a method that deliberately uses outrage and hate affects to build an emotional bond with his followers. Through the constant denunciation of "enemies" – be it the media ("Fake News"), political opponents (like Joe Biden or Kamala Harris), or institutions – Trump creates a narrative of threat and resistance. This narrative appeals to voters who feel alienated from the political elite. The study emphasizes that Trump's communication does not aim at complex political argumentation, but at the creation of an emotional community directed against perceived threats.
An example from 2025 is Trump's handling of the debate on immigration policy. In February 2025, he announced a tightening of deportation policy, accompanied by a speech in which he broadly described migrants as a "danger to American culture." This statement, although heavily criticized internationally, was enthusiastically celebrated by his followers. According to an analysis by ZEIT (2025), Trump deliberately used the psychology of fear here to mobilize his base. The study refers to social identity theory, which explains how group belonging is strengthened by distinguishing oneself from "others." Trump's rhetoric reinforces this "us vs. them" feeling, making his seemingly erratic statements appear coherent and authentic to his followers.
Loyalty of the followership: Psychological dynamics
The loyalty of Trump's followers is another key factor in his success. A study by Lars Moen (2024) examined the personality traits of Trump's supporters and found that they often exhibit high levels of conscientiousness and a strong orientation toward authority. These individuals believe in Trump's superior leadership qualities and narratives such as the alleged election fraud of 2020, which reinforces their loyalty. Moen emphasizes that Trump's seemingly chaotic behavior is interpreted by his followers as an expression of strength and independence, as it challenges traditional political norms.
A current example from 2025 is Trump's reaction to the legal disputes surrounding his business practices. In April 2025, as new allegations of tax evasion emerged, Trump described the investigations in a speech as a "witch hunt" and called on his followers to "take back America." This rhetoric, described as a "deliberate escalation" in an analysis by Süddeutsche Zeitung (2025), led to a wave of support on social media, particularly on platforms like X, where hashtags like #StandWithTrump trended. This dynamic shows how Trump uses crises to activate his followership and solidify loyalty.
Foreign Policy: Calculated Unpredictability
In foreign policy, Trump's behavior is often criticized as inconsistent, but here too, a strategic logic is evident. Harold Hongju Koh, an international law expert, describes Trump's approach as "anti-globalist" and transactional in an analysis by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) (2019). His rapid shifts in position, for example in dealing with North Korea or China, serve to strengthen negotiating positions and achieve short-term deals. This strategy of "calculated unpredictability" signals strength and keeps opponents in uncertainty. An analysis by ZEIT (2025) emphasizes that from the perspective of his supporters, Trump's foreign policy appears rational because it relies on "America First" principles and chauvinistic narratives.
An example from 2025 is Trump's decision in May 2025 to partially lift sanctions against Russia in order to secure economic benefits for the USA. This decision, which was perceived internationally as surprising and contradictory, was hailed by Trump as a "brilliant deal." According to an analysis by Tagesschau (2025), this measure aimed to lower energy prices in the USA while simultaneously strengthening his base, which sees such unilateral steps as proof of Trump's negotiating skills. This "unpredictability" is therefore less a sign of chaos than a means of maximizing negotiating positions and mobilizing his supporters.
Critical Perspectives: International Perception and Dangers
Despite his successful model, Trump's behavior faces international criticism. A study by the Pew Research Center (2018) showed that only 27% of respondents in 25 countries had confidence in Trump's foreign policy decisions. This skepticism continued in 2025, as shown by an analysis from ZDFheute (2025), which describes Trump's policies as a danger to democratic norms. His tactic of generating attention through provocations and confrontations creates a climate of fear and division that can weaken institutions in the long run. Nevertheless, Trump's ability to secure loyalty and media presence through seemingly erratic behavior remains a key factor in his success.
Conclusion: A Model of Calculated Chaos
The analysis of peer-reviewed studies and current examples shows that Trump's seemingly erratic actions represent a well-thought-out success model. His extroverted personality, populist communication, and transactional politics utilize psychological mechanisms to mobilize emotions, solidify loyalty, and dominate attention. Concrete examples from 2025, such as his climate policy, immigration rhetoric, or foreign policy deals, illustrate that this model is by no means chaotic, but rather specifically tailored to the needs of his followers. While this strategy is viewed critically internationally and scientifically, it remains proof of strength and authenticity for Trump's base. Trump's success thus lies in his ability to use chaos as a tool to consolidate political power.
