The German in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) industry, a cornerstone of medical technology with a market volume of around 4.4 billion euros in 2022 and projected growth to 5.1 billion euros by 2028, is under enormous pressure from the emerging Chinese sector. China's IVD market, which stood at 5.5 billion US dollars in 2023 and is expected to grow to over 28 billion US dollars by 2030 at an annual growth rate of 6.4 percent, is increasingly exporting cheap products to the EU, leading to price wars, market declines, and dependency risks. Experts warn of a "second China shock" similar to that in the automotive and chemical industries: without countermeasures, job losses, innovation barriers, and an erosion of supply security in pandemic and chronic diagnostics are threatened.
Industry Context: Germany's Strength vs. China's Catch-Up Race
Germany is a global leader in the IVD sector, with companies like Siemens Healthineers, Roche Diagnostics, and Abbott Laboratories producing highly precise reagents, analyzers, and molecular tests for cancer, infectious diseases, and diabetes. The sector employs thousands and contributes 15 percent of the EU IVD market, driven by an aging population and increasing demand for personalized medicine. The EU In Vitro Diagnostic Medical Devices Regulation (IVDR), implemented gradually since 2022, sets high standards for quality and transparency, which favors German companies but also creates bureaucratic hurdles.
China, on the other hand, has evolved from an importer to an export giant since the 1980s. Under the "Made in China 2025" strategy, which aims to reduce dependence on foreign technology by 70 percent by 2025, Beijing is investing heavily in IVD: the market is growing twice as fast as the global average (CAGR 16.9 percent by 2027), with a focus on immunoassays, molecular diagnostics, and point-of-care tests (POCT). Chinese corporations such as Mindray, Bio-Rad, and CATL now dominate 70 percent of the domestic reagent market and are capturing global market share through economies of scale and subsidies.
Causes of the Threat: Dumping, Market Access, and Espionage Allegations
The core of the threat lies in asymmetric competition. Chinese IVD products are up to 50 percent cheaper, often due to state subsidies and dumping prices that undercut EU companies. In the first half of 2025, EU imports from China decreased by 25 percent in value, while volume increased by 15 percent – a classic dumping effect forcing German manufacturers, such as those based in Bavaria and Hesse, to lower prices. The EU Commission initiated an investigation in April 2024 into whether China is denying European companies access to its $18 billion market by favoring local products and hindering foreign ones through certification barriers. France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands are particularly affected, where thousands of SMEs are suffering.
Additionally, regulatory differences are a burden: while the IVDR demands strict proof of compliance, China has laxer standards, which favors Chinese exports. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution warns of Chinese economic espionage, which is targeting German IVD technologies under MIC 2025 – for example, through cyberattacks on high-tech companies. A study by the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) estimates that Chinese companies could capture 20 percent of the EU IVD market by 2030 if no measures are taken.
Consequences: Economic losses and security risks
The effects are already noticeable: German IVD companies report a 5–10 percent drop in revenue due to Chinese competition, with job cuts among suppliers. In pandemic diagnostics, where China supplied 80 percent of global tests from 2020–2023, a dependency has been established, creating supply gaps – for example, for PCR tests for infectious diseases. The Association of the Diagnostics Industry (VDGH) forecasts a difficult year for 2025 with price pressure and regulatory hurdles that slow down innovation: nine out of ten companies expect better opportunities abroad than at home.
In the long term, this endangers Germany's role as an export nation: the global IVD market is projected to grow to $157 billion by 2030, but China's export offensive could reduce German market share from 15 percent to below 10 percent. SMEs, which constitute 70 percent of the industry, are particularly vulnerable and struggle to compete with Chinese economies of scale.
Political reactions and outlook: EU anti-dumping and diversification as salvation?
The EU is responding with protective measures: in addition to the ongoing investigation, the Commission is planning tariffs on Chinese IVD imports and a strengthening of "Open Strategic Autonomy." In Germany, Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) is calling for investments of 500 million euros in IVD research within the coalition framework under Chancellor Merz (CDU) to ensure independence. The VDGH urges Berlin to implement the IVDR without overburdening the industry and to diversify cooperation with Asia.
Experts like the Bertelsmann Foundation see opportunities in partnerships: German companies could use Chinese markets as long as EU access is secured. The sector could stabilize by 2030 if subsidies for green IVD (e.g., CO2-neutral reagents) flow. However, without rapid action, there is a risk of an "industrial loss of heartbeat": diagnostics, essential for an aging society, could become a weakness instead of a strength. The next EU trade conference in October 2025 will clarify whether the "China shock" can be cushioned.
Sources: VDGH, EU Commission, MERICS, MarketsandMarkets, Grand View Research, Verfassungsschutz, Handelsblatt
