The US has one of the strongest economies in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of over $25 trillion (as of 2023) and a large domestic market. This domestic market – about 330 million people with high purchasing power – gives the US a certain resilience to external trade conflicts. They could theoretically last longer than smaller, export-dependent economies because they are less reliant on international trade. The US import share of GDP is about 15%, while countries like Germany (approx. 47%) or China (approx. 20%) are more integrated into global supply chains.
However, a trade war means not only the loss of export markets but also rising costs for imports, which burdens US consumers and businesses. If the US imposes high tariffs on goods from China, the EU, Canada, or Mexico, retaliatory tariffs could hit the US export sector – such as agriculture (soybeans, meat) or industry (cars, technology). Already in the trade dispute with China starting in 2018, prices for consumer goods in the US rose by about 4.5–6.5%, while agriculture suffered losses. A widespread trade war would multiply these effects.
The US dollar's position as the world's reserve currency is another advantage. About 60% of global currency reserves are held in dollars, allowing the US to finance deficits and effectively impose sanctions. However, a protracted trade war could weaken confidence in the dollar, especially if countries like China or the BRICS states push alternatives (e.g., the yuan). This would be a slow process, but it could undermine US financial power in the long run.
Politically, the duration depends on internal stability. High prices and job losses could erode support for protectionist policies. Historically, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which increased tariffs on over 20,000 products, led to a 60% decline in world trade and exacerbated the Great Depression – a warning sign of how quickly protectionism can backfire. Today, the global economy is more interconnected, making the consequences of a trade war more complex.
Specifically: In a moderate scenario (e.g., 10–25% tariffs on major trading partners), the US could hold out for a few years (perhaps 3–5) thanks to its size and resources before inflation, declining growth, and political pressure force a change in course. In a radical scenario (60–100% tariffs, as partially threatened by Donald Trump), the burden – due to disrupted supply chains, stock market crashes, and global isolation – could become critical after just 1–2 years. China, the EU, and others could also forge alliances to bypass the US market, exacerbating the situation.
Without precise data on a current trade war (as of April 2025), this remains speculative. The USA has strong cards, but a trade war is a war of attrition that no one truly wins. Historical examples and economic logic suggest that the limit could be a few years, depending on the intensity and the world's reaction.
